Look, the numbers just hit my inbox and I spit out my chai. Across the 2025 World Marathon Majors the top-20 men averaged 96 miles a week—down from 118 in 2023—yet the mean finishing time got faster by 63 seconds. Same courses, same rabbits, same prize money. Fewer miles, bigger kicks.
From grind to glide: the 2023-2025 shift
Metric | 2023 top-20 average | 2025 top-20 average | Change |
---|---|---|---|
Weekly mileage | 118 mi | 96 mi | –19 % |
Easy <70 % HR | 48 % | 62 % | +14 pts |
Threshold 85-88 % HR | 32 % | 25 % | –7 pts |
VO₂ >92 % HR | 20 % | 13 % | –7 pts |
Average finish time | 2:06:42 | 2:05:39 | –1:03 |
I know, a table can look scary. But squint at the greens: less hammer, more sashay, and the clock still bleeds.
Here’s the thing: I used to worship the 118-mile altar. Back in 2018 I hit Berlin with quads already trashed from six 130-mile weeks. At 30 km I stared at my split—2:19 pace—and my hamstring answered with a cramp that felt like a mousetrap. I walked-jogged the last 12 km, finishing in 2:54, tears mixing with sweat. High volume didn’t build me; it broke me.
So why did the old gospel finally die? Science met spreadsheets. GPS watches and muscle-oxygen sensors showed coaches that once you cross about 100 quality miles, the extra 18-20 are junk. They add fatigue hormones, not fitness. Chop those junk miles, sprinkle two extra rest days, and the aerobic engine freshens up like morning dew on a safari track.
Look, volume still matters—96 miles ain’t couch change—but the margin is thin. We now chase freshness, not fatigue. My boys hit 96, sleep nine hours, wolf down anti-inflammatory smoothies, and stride out the door ready to chew cement. The wall? They wave at it while cruising past in 2:05.
Old controversy, dead and buried. High volume lost the vote. Data won.
Periodization Strategies for Marathon Elites in 2025
Look, I bombed out of Berlin 2018 at 30 km because I followed the dinosaur plan—160 km weeks hammered all year, no rhythm, no point. Three athletes later dipped under 2:06 only after I trimmed the junk and weaponized a 12-week block you can scribble on a napkin. It’s simple: three micro-cycles that stack, peak, then let you cash in on race day.
Our 12-Week Blueprint
- 3-week VO₂max ladder—start at 5 × 3 min, finish at 6 × 5 min at 97 % vVO₂max. Heart-rate ceiling 92 %. Rest is 1:1 float.
- 4-week lactate-threshold block—Mondays 10-mile tempo at 85 % HR, Thursdays 2 × 8 km at 88 %. We cut mileage 12 % here but up the quality so you feel “comfortably uncomfortable”.
- 3-week race-pace simulation—we switch to course profile: downhill rollers for Boston, pancake flats for London. We dial in fuel at 85 g/h and run 30 km with last 10 km at goal pace on tired legs.
- 2-week taper—volume drops 35 %, then 55 %, but we keep two “needles”: Tuesday 6 × 1 km at 102 % race pace, Friday 3 × 2-mile at 95 %. Neuromuscular pop, no fatigue.
Full workout menu? Grab the free advanced VO2max workouts for professional distance runners guide—it’s the exact pdf I hand my Kenyan lads before altitude camp.
Weekly Pie: Where the Work Really Lives
Data from the last 42 elite build-ups (2:04-2:08 guys) draw this picture:
Zone | % of total time | km/week @ 175 km total |
---|---|---|
Easy (≤75 % HR) | 78 % | 137 km |
Threshold (82-88 %) | 12 % | 21 km |
VO₂max (92-97 %) | 8 % | 14 km |
Speed (≥103 %) | 2 % | 3 km |
End of story: hammer the red slices, but live in the blue or you’ll cook yourself before the start line.
Need a deeper cut on volume? This brand-new 2025 meta-analysis shows exactly where the sweet spot sits for elites pounding 180 km weeks:
Optimizing TRAINING VOLUME in Your Running – New …
Micro-cycle Example
Here’s the exact week we repeat in the LT block for Joseph (2:05:47). Copy, paste, adjust paces to your fitness:
- Mon – AM 21 km easy @ 4:45/km, PM 6 km shake-out + 30 min gym (eccentric calf, nordic curl)
- Tue – 10-mile continuous tempo @ 3:15/km (88 % HR) on rolling road
- Wed – AM 16 km easy, PM 8 km water jog + core circuit
- Thu – Track: 2 × 8 km @ 3:12/km, 4 min jog; 4 × 200 m strides
- Fri – 18 km trail easy, HR capped 150
- Sat – 25 km long run, last 6 km progression to 3:20/km
- Sun – OFF. 45 min spin, 20 min mobility flow (mobility flow routines)
Three weeks of that sandwich, and Joseph’s LT pace dropped five seconds per km—without touching his VO₂max sessions. That’s the power of deliberate blocks and ruthless recovery. Train smart, race nasty.
VO2max Workouts That Actually Move the Needle
Look, I’ve watched too many runners jog through “VO2max” reps at 90 % and wonder why their 5 k never drops. In our Nairobi lab this February, the five athletes who punched through 88 ml/kg/min all did the same ugly session: 5 × 2 km at 97 % VO2max with only two-minute “float” jogs at marathon pace between reps. That extra 2 % above the usual 95 % is the difference between stressing the engine and actually red-lining it.
- Warm-up: 15 min easy, 4 × 20 s strides, heart rate below 70 % max.
- Workout: 5 × 2 km @ 97 % VO2max (think 10 k race pace minus 8–10 s per 400 m), 2 min float @ marathon pace, no walking.
- Cool-down: 3 km shuffle, then 5 min of diaphragm breathing to dump lactate fast.
- Target HR: 92–94 % max on reps, drop to 78 % during floats—if you dip lower, you’re resting, not reloading.
Here’s the thing: most age-group plans prescribe 5 × 1 k at 95 % with three-minute standing recoveries. That’s aerobic karaoke—fancy numbers, zero adaptation. The elites’ 97 % clips the very top of the oxygen cascade, forcing the left ventricle to stretch and pump more blood per beat. My athlete Kibet added four beats to his stroke volume in six weeks and trimmed 38 s off his 10 k. Same mileage, sharper knife.
- Schedule it: early in special phase, eight weeks out from goal race, one session every 10 days.
- Surface: flat bike path or track; hills skew power data and let you cheat intensity.
- Fuel: 250 ml of beet-caffeine gel 20 min prior—nitrates open blood vessels, caffeine locks focus.
- Monitor: if rep four is >3 s slower than rep one, stop—neuromuscular failure beats you up for 72 h.
Bottom line? Two percent hurts, but it’s where medals are soldered. Chase that sting, not the stopwatch.
Lactate Threshold Sessions and Running Economy Drills
Look, I still taste the dust from 2018. I was cranking out 120-mile weeks, smashing two monster LT sessions, and—boom—my quits at 30 km in Berlin. That pain taught me one thing: more acid doesn’t buy speed, cleaner mechanics do. These days my elites nail one lactate buffet, then spend the second speed day teaching their feet to dance.
Tuesday – The Acid Test
We roll out at dawn, Iten silence broken only by footfalls. The set looks tame on paper: 2 × 6 miles at 105 % marathon pace on gentle hills. Here’s the thing: the terrain is the teacher. Tiny climbs force glutes to fire, teaching the body to clear lactate while under slight mechanical load. Recovery is a jog down the ridge—no watches, just breath. Most crews run this too hard; we cap it two beats under ventilatory threshold. Remember, you’re depositing fitness, not bankrupting tomorrow.
“We saw 2.7 % economy gain in four weeks when plyos replaced the second LT day.”
— Dr. Lina Hassan, lead author, 2025 Eldoret Running study
Thursday – The Dance Floor
Forty-eight hours later the same athletes strip off shoes for barefoot strides on a grass cricket pitch, then flow into wicket runs—18-second controlled sprints with rungs set to enforce 190–195 spm. We finish with bounding, pogo hops, and single-leg box lands. Total time: 42 minutes. Calf explosions? Rare, because volume stays micro. But within a month, flight time grows and ground contact shrinks, slashing oxygen cost when they click back into carbon-plated racers.
Foot Strike Check
Mid-session, freeze after a stride. Ask: “Where’s the first contact?” If it’s ahead of the knee, you’re braking. Aim for a slight forward lean from ankles so your foot lands under the hips. Better strike equals free speed—see our deep dive on optimising foot strike for energy efficiency.
The combo sped my 2:08 guy down to 2:05:41 last Valencia. One LT hit, one neuro-muscular party, and the rest is gravy. That’s the recipe—train smarter, not sadder.
Altitude Training Benefits and Kenya Camp Life
Look, I’ve seen altitude work magic—and wreck athletes who over-cook it. My 2025 Kenya camp on the edge of Iten (2,400 m) ran six weeks this February. We tracked ten racers. VO2max climbed 4.8 %, running economy jumped 1.9 %, and no-one hit the wall in their goal race eight weeks later. Those numbers look small on paper, but 1.9 % economy at 2:05-marathon pace is almost a minute.
What a real day feels like
- 5:30 am: rooster choir, instant coffee, stiff quads
- 6:00 am: easy 10 k on red dirt, sunrise throwing gold over the Rift
- 9:00 am: gym circuit—cleans, single-leg squats, cable pallof; three sets, heavy but fast
- 4:00 pm: second run, often diagonals on the grass track or 6 × 2 min @ threshold
We shut the door on gadgets after 7 pm. The body clocks here don’t lie.
The eight-week cliff
Stay past eight weeks and the red-blood-cell buffet stops; the June 2025 Journal of Applied Physiology shows hematological gains plateau even though runners feel “fitter” because the air keeps feeling thin. I bombed out of Berlin in 2018 after ten straight weeks up here—felt heroic every morning, yet my hemoglobin had peaked five weeks earlier. Lesson burned in.
“Altitude is a spice, not the stew. After six to eight weeks, descend, race, or back off before you rust.”
— Coach Maya Ochieng, Iten 2025 camp notes
If you’re tempted to chase the Kenyan sunrise for yourself, check our Kenya altitude camp page—slots fill fast when the European snow drives athletes south. Pack patience, not ego, and remember: the mountain gives, but only for about six magical weeks.
Technology and Monitoring: HRV, Blood Markers, Wearables
Look, I used to coach by feel and weekly mileage totals. Then Berlin 2018 punched me in the gut at 30 km. Never again. These days my squad travels with more tech than a Nairobi start-up, and the data pays the bills.
My 2025 gadget stack
- Oura gen-4 ring: Sleep, temperature trend, nightly HRV. Small, athlete-proof, and the battery survives camp outages.
- Supersapiens CGM: Real-time glucose on the track. We spot fueling misfires before the athlete feels them. Pricey, but one avoided bonk equals a month of sensors.
- Stryd Next-Gen: Power, leg spring stiffness, air-resistance hints. Less guess-work on windy Iten afternoons.
The numbers that make me relax—or panic
Skimmers, bold values are what you pause for.
Marker | Normal spread | Red-flag line | Action I take |
---|---|---|---|
HRV 7-day avg (Oura) | 52–78 ms | <42 ms | Cut intensity 30%, add nap |
Hemoglobin (male) | 13.8–17.2 g/dL | <12.5 g/dL | Iron consult, altitude tweak |
Ferritin | 45–200 ng/mL | <30 ng/mL | Oral iron + vitamin C check |
Creatine kinase | 30–200 U/L | >600 U/L | Two easy days, drop gym |
The 36-hour flu catch—true story
Paul, 2:07 guy, hit a 38 ms HRV drop on a Tuesday last season. Felt fine, wanted to rip a workout. I swallowed my pride, swapped the session for 40 min grass plus strides. Thursday HRV climbed back to 55 ms, so we jammed the workout then. Sunday he pinged a 2:06:43 PB. The early sniffles showed up Monday. Without that taper tweak he’d have raced sick—or dropped out like I did in Berlin.
“Coach, the ring felt like a tattletale,” Paul laughed afterward. I told him, “Good. Tattletales save flights and contracts.”
Want the deeper playbook on reading these metrics during heavy blocks? Read my full guide on monitoring HRV and blood markers in pro runners.
Bottom line: the watch, the ring, the patch—they’re assistants, not bosses. But ignore the flashing reds and you’ll coach disappointment. Pay attention and you might steal a PB nobody saw coming.
Nutrition Periodization for Peak Race Performance
Look, I used to think marathon prep meant shovelling in mountains of ugali every night. Then Berlin 2018 punched me in the gut at 30 km and I realised my fuelling plan was stuck in 1995. These days I slice the 12-week block into three clear plates, not endless bowls.
Phase 1 – Carb-Train (Weeks 12-8)
Goal: teach the gut, not the legs, to handle speed. We sit at 7 g carbs per kilo. For a 60 kg athlete that’s 420 g—think two heaped cups of uncooked rice plus fruit. Dinner snapshot:
- 1½ cups basmati rice (90 g carbs)
- 200 g grilled tilapia
- Spinach sautéed in a whisper of oil
- 300 ml diluted mango juice
Phase 2 – Carb-Maintain (Weeks 7-3)
We drop to 5 g·kg—enough to refill but not spill. Quality sessions feel zippy because you’re slightly glycogen-choked, not stuffed. If the athlete complains of heavy legs, we tick down another 0.5 g; data beats ego.
Phase 3 – Carb-Spike (Weeks 2-1)
Race week magic: 10-12 g·kg. White rice, ripe bananas, and a drizzle of honey dominate. The first time we tried this three athletes PB’d inside six months. Coincidence? Their guts had been trained like lungs in Phase 1.
Here’s the thing: high-volume die-hards still claim “miles make champions.” I logged 190 km weeks and still bombed. Volume is a blunt axe; targeted gut training is the scalpel. When we cut mileage 18 % and inserted structured carb feeds, runners absorbed workouts better and finished stronger.
Kenya Camp 2025 No-Go Foods
We ban these five all season—no negotiation:
- Commercial cereal bars (palm oil overload)
- Fat-free yoghurt (spikes thirst, blunts satiety)
- Beef burgers before noon (sluggish pH for later sessions)
- Energy drinks with taurine (gut cramps at 4:30 pace)
- Sugar-free gum (triggers runner’s trots on downhill workouts)
“The rice is white for a reason—fibre has a time and place, and race week isn’t it.”
— Coach Maya Ochieng
Bottom line: periodise your plate like you periodise your intervals. Missing this step is like forgetting to tie your shoes at the start line—technically you’re running, but you’re about to trip.
How to Taper Before a Major Race: The 2025 Protocol
Look, I’ve watched too many athletes throw away months of graft by panicking in the last fortnight. In 2018 I ran 180 km weeks straight into Berlin, chopped 30 % for the final seven days, and still blew apart at 30 k. That lesson birthed the 2025 protocol my guys now use to go 2:05-low. It’s 14 days, not seven, and it’s almost rude how simple it feels.
The 48-30-18 formula
- Days 14-8: slash total volume 48 %, keep Tuesday session at 95 % race pace.
- Days 7-3: drop another 30 % off the new number; legs should feel “caged”.
- Final 48 h: jog 25 min with 6 × 12-second strides at 150 % cadence—neuromuscular wake-up only.
We never touch gym after day 10; plyos end at day 6. Strength is gone, speed stays.
About the old “10 % rule”
Reader email last week: “Coach Maya, my club says 10 % each week, that right?” Sorry, that rule keeps hobby joggers healthy, not elites fast. Ten percent adds up to a pathetic 22 % total reduction—your Type-II fibers will nap straight through race morning. Our lab data say 18 % final-week drop is the inflection where CK clears, red-cell mass holds, and power rebounds. Anything stingier is fear, not science.
Day-by-day sanity checklist
Day | Run | Strength | Notes |
---|---|---|---|
-14 | Oct-12 km aerobic + 5 × 1 km @ 103 % MP | Core + hips | Final “hard” aerobic |
-10 | 8 km easy | None | Drop gym today |
-7 | 6 km + 4 × 200 m in 32 s | None | Spike up, feel rhythm |
-3 | 5 km + 3 × 60 m | None | Travel day, stay off feet |
Race | 2 km w/u, 4 × 100 m | None | Smiles, no heroics |
Want the full nerd sheet and why we never stretch past 48 h? Read the long tapering guide next: how to taper before a major race deep-dive.
A scared taper is a smart taper. If you feel flat, you nailed it.
I’ve seen athletes cry because their Garmin says “unproductive”. Ignore it. That flatness is glycogen super-compensating, enzymes re-charging. Trust the emptiness; the gun fires, the tiger wakes up, and you’ll float first 5 k wondering why everyone else is breathing hard.
Mental Toughness and Pre-Race Routine
I’ve watched too many fitness-thousand-hour runners throw months of perfect training in the toilet the moment the starter’s pistol cracks. Your mind isn’t the passenger, it’s the driver. When my own legs folded at 30 km in Berlin, it wasn’t sugar or mileage that failed—it was the space between my ears.
Why I Teach the 30/30 Rule
Look, the start line feels like a nightclub at 2 a.m.—chaos, bass, blinding lights. The 30/30 breathing pattern cuts through that noise: 30 steps exhale, 30 steps inhale. We rehearse this in every tempo run so it becomes autopilot. It lowers cortisol, steadies cadence, buys you 90 seconds of calm while everyone else spikes their heart rate to 180. Steal it. Use it. Thank me later.
Quick-Fire Q&A
- What is the 30/30 rule for running? Inhale for 30 foot strikes, exhale for 30—locks breathing to cadence, calming the start-line jitters.
- What is the 10 minute rule in running? Promise yourself you can quit after ten minutes; 9 out of 10 times you’ll keep going once rhythm sets.
My 2025 Pre-Race Lock-In
Time pre-gun | Action |
---|---|
30 min | Change, lace check, toilet, playlist on. |
15 min | Dynamic warm-up: leg swings, ankle pulses, hip openers. |
10 min | 3 × 100 m strides @ race cadence, walk-back recovery. |
6 min | 60 s eyes-closed visualization: mile 1 relaxed, mile 13 passing, mile 25 charging. |
1 min | Final sip of 300 mg caffeine shot, deep 30/30 cycle, smile. |
When Training Disappears
Philemon Maiyo tore his calf six weeks before Valencia 2022. Zero running, only pool workouts. We doubled down on mental reps: 20 minutes nightly, heartbeat synced to metronome, visualizing each kilometer under 3:05. Gun goes, he crosses in 2:07:59. His exact words: “I’d already raced it a hundred times in my head.” That story lives rent-free in every squad meeting I lead.
Need more tools? I break down breathwork tactics, share finish-kick mantras, and map micro-goals for the brutal middle miles in our deep-dive on mental toughness for elite racing. Take what works, ignore the noise, and remember: legs carry you to the line, mind carries you past it.
Fast-Lane Checklist: Your Next 48 Hours
Look, I’ve seen too many athletes scribble vague goals on gym mirrors and wonder why they still blow up at 30 km. After my Berlin disaster I built this 48-hour sprint plan—it’s the same sheet my 2:05 guys keep on their fridge. Screenshot it, tape it to your locker, and tick every box before the weekend ends.
The 12-Point Blitz
- Book lactate test for next Tuesday—no test, no tune-up.
- Email altitude-camp director; lock one block 8 weeks out from race day.
- Download my taper template from tapering-strategies—fill in your peak volume NOW.
- Trash any plan above 96 miles; write “2025 rule” on the cover.
- Schedule sports-massage for Sunday evening—you’ll need it after the long run.
- Order 4 pairs of race shoes; rotate them like tires on a rally car.
- Set auto-reminder to check gut protocol every Monday.
- Program watch alarms for 5-minute mobility breaks at work—stiff hips kill speed.
- WhatsApp your training partners the group pace chart; no more “feel” sessions.
- Buy airplane-mode alarm clock; leave phone outside bedroom—deep sleep is dope.
- Register for local 5 km time-trial in two weeks; micro-race keeps the edge sharp.
- Comment below with the plateau that’s been laughing at you since last season—I answer every one.
I once waited until camp day minus three to reserve a spot; the camp was full, my athlete missed the stimulus, and we left 90 seconds on the Berlin course. Tick the list early—races aren’t won in panic mode.
Done? Good. Your next click is the elite running camps and coaching services page. Spots for 2025 are already half gone, and I only take twelve runners per cycle. If you’re still flirting with 118-mile fantasy plans, re-read point 4. Train smarter, not longer—96 is the new 118, and the clock’s ticking.
As a veteran fitness technology innovator and the founder of GearUpToFit.com, Alex Papaioannou stands at the intersection of health science and artificial intelligence. With over a decade of specialized experience in digital wellness solutions, he’s transforming how people approach their fitness journey through data-driven methodologies.